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Merrill Lynch: Apple could double iPod revenue in 05

 

A Merrill Lynch research report released late last month said Apple is expected to sell nearly 4 million iPods in the December 2004 quarter. In the report, analyst Steven Milunovich reiterated his 'buy' rating on Apple with a 12-month target price of $78. Offering strong evidence about the popularity of the iPod around the US and other countries, Merrill Lynch said that despite the growing number of "iPod challengers," Apple's share in the digital player market is increasing. With Apple expected to enter the flash-based digital music player market in the near future, Apple could potentially double its iPod-based revenues, the report states.

 

Merrill Lynch offered anecdotal observations about iPod sales in the US and Japan, market share growth in 2005, and even more stock strength driven by optimistic iPod sales numbers and a "strong iMac season." Milunovich wrote that Apple could sell as many as 4.5-5.0 million iPods in an "optimistic" scenario; however, supplies of iPod drives would likely constrain sales beyond that point.

 

The report notes that demand for the iPod is strong and that the iPod is the most searched item on Shopping.com, a popular comparison shopping site. Augmenting the prevailing notion of an iPod shortage, Milunovich said that Amazon.com was backordered on the 20GB model and was sold out of green and gold iPod mini models and that there were "spot shortages" of some of the models at other non-Apple retails. However, Apple retail stores (and its online counterpart) were reported to have good supply of the players.

 

Merrill Lynch noted that Apple is strongly pushing the iPod in Japan where some trains are "plastered with Apple advertising." Tokyo's "Best Buy" counterpart, Bic Camera, is also reporting that the iPod is their hottest seller. Meanwhile, local consumer rankings for Sony's competitive HDD Walkmans are reportedly quite low.

 

The report noted that Apple's iPod market-share gains are also in part due to its retail strategy. "At the new store in London there was a line of 110 people waiting to pay last Saturday," Milunovich wrote. "The Sony store nearby was relatively empty."